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Sci Total Environ

Title:		Nonlinear relationships between air pollutant emissions and PM(2.5)-related health impacts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Author(s):		Zhao B; Wang S; Ding D; Wu W; Chang X; Wang J; Xing J; Jang C; Fu JS; Zhu Y; Zheng M; Gu Y;
Address:		"School of Environment, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. School of Environment, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China. Electronic address: shxwang@tsinghua.edu.cn. School of Environment, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China. Multiphase Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, United States. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China. SKL-ESPC and BIC-ESAT, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA; University of California, Los Angeles Institute for Technology Advancement, Suzhou Industrial Park (UCLA ITA - SIP), Suzhou, China"
Journal Title:		Sci Total Environ
Year:		2019
Volume:		20190116
Issue:
Page Number:		375 - 385
DOI:		10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.169
ISSN/ISBN:		1879-1026 (Electronic) 0048-9697 (Print) 0048-9697 (Linking)
Abstract:		"A direct and quantitative linkage of air pollution-related health effects to emissions from different sources is critically important for decision-making. While a number of studies have attributed the PM(2.5)-related health impacts to emission sources, they have seldom examined the complicated nonlinear relationships between them. Here we investigate the nonlinear relationships between PM(2.5)-related premature mortality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the most polluted regions in the world, and emissions of different pollutants from multiple sectors and regions, through a combination of chemical transport model (CTM), extended response surface model (ERSM), and concentration-response functions (CRFs). The mortalities due to both long-term and short-term exposures to PM(2.5) are most sensitive to the emission reductions of primary PM(2.5), followed by NH(3), nonmethane volatile organic compounds and intermediate volatility organic compounds (NMVOC+IVOC). The sensitivities of long-term mortality to emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA), NMVOC+IVOC and SO(2) do not change much with reduction ratio, whereas the sensitivities to primary inorganic PM(2.5) (defined as all chemical components of primary PM(2.5) other than POA), NH(3) and NO(x) increase significantly with the increase of reduction ratio. The emissions of primary PM(2.5), especially those from the residential and commercial sectors, contribute a larger fraction of mortality in winter (57-70%) than in other seasons (28-42%). When emissions of multiple pollutants or those from both local and regional emissions are controlled simultaneously, the overall sensitivity of long-term mortality is much larger than the arithmetic sum of the sensitivities to emissions of individual pollutants or from individual regions. This implies that a multi-pollutant, multi-sector and regional joint control strategy should be implemented to maximize the marginal health benefits. For NO(x) emissions, we suggest a nationwide control strategy which significantly enhances the effectiveness for reducing mortality by avoiding possible side effects when only the emissions within the BTH region are reduced"
Keywords:		"Air Pollutants/*adverse effects China/epidemiology Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects Humans *Mortality, Premature Nonlinear Dynamics Particle Size Particulate Matter/*adverse effects Cmaq/2d-vbs China Pm(2.5) extended response surface model (ERSM) p;"
Notes:		"MedlineZhao, Bin Wang, Shuxiao Ding, Dian Wu, Wenjing Chang, Xing Wang, Jiandong Xing, Jia Jang, Carey Fu, Joshua S Zhu, Yun Zheng, Mei Gu, Yu eng EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/ Netherlands 2019/01/25 Sci Total Environ. 2019 Apr 15; 661:375-385. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.169. Epub 2019 Jan 16"