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J Environ Manage

Title:		Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model
Author(s):		Zhang WW; Zhao B; Gu Y; Sharp B; Xu SC; Liou KN;
Address:		"Energy Center, University of Auckland, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA. Electronic address: wzha231@aucklanduni.ac.nz. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99352, USA; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA. Electronic address: bin.zhao@pnnl.gov. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA; University of California, Los Angeles Institute for Technology Advancement, Suzhou Industrial Park (UCLA ITA-SIP), Suzhou, 215000, China. Electronic address: gu@atmos.ucla.edu. Energy Center, University of Auckland, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand. Electronic address: b.sharp@auckland.ac.nz. Management School, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China. Electronic address: xushichun78@163.com. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA. Electronic address: knliou@atmos.ucla.edu"
Journal Title:		J Environ Manage
Year:		2020
Volume:		20200614
Issue:
Page Number:		110901 -
DOI:		10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110901
ISSN/ISBN:		1095-8630 (Electronic) 0301-4797 (Linking)
Abstract:		"Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO(2) emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China's 2030 national CO(2) abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO(2) emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO(2) emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called 'emissions leakage'). The CO(2) leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO(2), changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO(2) and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO(2) and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage"
Keywords:		Air Pollutants/*analysis Air Pollution/*analysis Beijing Carbon Carbon Dioxide/analysis China Environment Environmental Monitoring Particulate Matter/analysis Air pollutants CGE modeling Emissions leakage Mitigation Subnational carbon policy;
Notes:		"MedlineZhang, Wen-Wen Zhao, Bin Gu, Yu Sharp, Basil Xu, Shi-Chun Liou, Kuo-Nan eng England 2020/07/30 J Environ Manage. 2020 Sep 15; 270:110901. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110901. Epub 2020 Jun 14"