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Environ Monit Assess

Title:		Uncertainty assessment of VOC emissions from paint in The Netherlands using the NUSAP system
Author(s):		Van der Sluijs JP; Risbey JS; Ravetz J;
Address:		"Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, Utrecht, The Netherlands. j.p.vandersluijs@chem.uu.nl"
Journal Title:		Environ Monit Assess
Year:		2005
Volume:		105
Issue:		1-Mar
Page Number:		229 - 259
DOI:		10.1007/s10661-005-3697-7
ISSN/ISBN:		0167-6369 (Print) 0167-6369 (Linking)
Abstract:		"We demonstrate an innovative approach to uncertainty assessment known as the NUSAP system, to assess qualitative and quantitative uncertainty for the case of emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from paint in The Netherlands. Using expert elicitation, we identified key sources of error, critical assumptions, and bias in the monitoring process. We assessed pedigree and probabilistic uncertainty of all input quantities. We used four pedigree criteria to assess the strength of the knowledge base: proxy representation, empirical basis, methodological rigour and degree of validation. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we assessed sensitivity and propagation of uncertainty. Results for sensitivity and pedigree were combined in a 'NUSAP Diagnostic Diagram', which effectively highlighted the assumption for VOC percentage of imported paint as the weakest spot in the monitoring of VOC emissions. We conclude that NUSAP facilitates systematic scrutinization of method and underlying assumptions and structures creative thinking on sources of error and bias. It provides a means to prioritise uncertainties and focus research efforts on the potentially most problematic parameters and assumptions, at the same time identifying specific weaknesses in the knowledge base. With NUSAP, nuances of meaning about quantities can be conveyed concisely and clearly, to a degree that is not possible with statistic methods only"
Keywords:		Air Pollutants/*analysis Environmental Monitoring/*methods Monte Carlo Method Netherlands Organic Chemicals/*analysis Paint Research Design *Uncertainty Volatilization;
Notes:		"MedlineVan der Sluijs, Jeroen P Risbey, James S Ravetz, Jerry eng Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Netherlands 2005/06/15 Environ Monit Assess. 2005 Jun; 105(1-3):229-59. doi: 10.1007/s10661-005-3697-7"