| Title: | Future impacts of O(3) on respiratory hospital admission in the UK from current emissions policies |
| Author(s): | Macintyre HL; Mitsakou C; Vieno M; Heal MR; Heaviside C; Exley KS; |
| Address: | "UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, UK. Electronic address: helen.macintyre@ukhsa.gov.uk. UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK. Electronic address: christina.mitsakou@ukhsa.gov.uk. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK. Electronic address: mvi@ceh.ac.uk. School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Joseph Black Building, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, UK. Electronic address: m.heal@ed.ac.uk. Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK. Electronic address: c.heaviside@ucl.ac.uk. UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK. Electronic address: karen.exley@ukhsa.gov.uk" |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108046 |
| ISSN/ISBN: | 1873-6750 (Electronic) 0160-4120 (Linking) |
| Abstract: | "Exposure to ambient ozone (O(3)) O(3) is associated with impacts on human health. O(3) is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM(2.5) and NO(2) and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O(3) the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O(3) across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O(3). We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O(3) concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O(3) mainly occurring in areas with lowest O(3) concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O(3) on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM(2.5) and NO(2)), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O(3) close to population centres that may increase harms to health" |
| Keywords: | Humans *Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis Particulate Matter/analysis Nitrogen Dioxide *Air Pollution/analysis *Ozone/analysis Nitric Oxide *Environmental Pollutants United Kingdom Hospitals Environmental Monitoring/methods Air quality Emissions Hea; |
| Notes: | "MedlineMacintyre, Helen L Mitsakou, Christina Vieno, Massimo Heal, Mathew R Heaviside, Clare Exley, Karen S eng NIHR200909/DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom 216035/Z/19/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Netherlands 2023/07/03 Environ Int. 2023 Aug; 178:108046. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108046. Epub 2023 Jun 19" |
