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Environ Pollut

Title:		"Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation"
Author(s):		Campbell P; Zhang Y; Yan F; Lu Z; Streets D;
Address:		"Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA. Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA. Electronic address: yzhang9@ncsu.edu. Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA; Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 60439, USA; Currently at Mobile Source Control Division, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, 95814, USA. Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA; Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 60439, USA"
Journal Title:		Environ Pollut
Year:		2018
Volume:		20180417
Issue:
Page Number:		903 - 917
DOI:		10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.020
ISSN/ISBN:		1873-6424 (Electronic) 0269-7491 (Linking)
Abstract:		"Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH(3)), and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO(x), VOC, and NH(3), while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO(2) emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations"
Keywords:		Air Pollutants/*analysis Air Pollution/analysis/*statistics & numerical data Carbon Monoxide Climate Change *Environmental Monitoring Forecasting Nitrogen Oxides/analysis Particulate Matter/analysis Seasons Transportation United States Vehicle Emissions/*;
Notes:		"MedlineCampbell, Patrick Zhang, Yang Yan, Fang Lu, Zifeng Streets, David eng England 2018/04/21 Environ Pollut. 2018 Jul; 238:903-917. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.020. Epub 2018 Apr 17"