| Title: | Future air quality and premature mortality in Korea |
| Author(s): | Oak YJ; Park RJ; Lee JT; Byun G; |
| Address: | "School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. Electronic address: rjpark@snu.ac.kr. School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Science, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea; Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea. Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea" |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161134 |
| ISSN/ISBN: | 1879-1026 (Electronic) 0048-9697 (Linking) |
| Abstract: | "We simulate air quality in Korea for the present, the near-term, and the long-term future conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1: most sustainable pathway with strong emissions control, SSP3: most challenging pathway with mild emissions control) using a chemical transport model. Simulated future concentrations of NO(2), SO(2), and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), show, in general, lower values compared to the present with varying degrees depending on SSP scenarios. Significant reductions in precursor emissions result in a decrease in O(3) concentrations under a NO(x)-limited environment in the long-term future under SSP1. Under SSP3, O(3) increases in the future under a VOC-limited regime, driven by increased CH(4) levels and biogenic VOC emissions under the warming climate. Concentrations of PM(2.5) and its components, including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and organic aerosols (OA), generally decrease in the long-term future under both scenarios. However, the contribution of biogenic secondary OA (BSOA) to PM(2.5) will increase in the future. Simulated results are used to estimate cardiorespiratory mortality changes with concentration-response factors from epidemiologic studies in Korea based on national health surveys and Korean cohorts, using projected population structures from the SSP database. The cardiorespiratory health burden of long-term exposure to O(3), NO(2), SO(2), and PM(2.5) is estimated to be 10,419 (95 % confidence interval: 1271-17,142), 8630 (0-18,713), 3958 (0-9272), and 10,431 (1411-20,643) deaths in 2019. We find that the total cardiorespiratory excess mortality due to air pollutants under SSP1 decreases by 8 % and 95 % in 2045 and 2095, respectively. Under SSP3, excess mortality increases by 80 % in 2045, and decreases by 22 % in 2095, resulting in a substantial difference in the health outcomes depending on the emission scenario. We also find that the BSOA contribution to total PM(2.5) will differ by region, emphasizing the potential health impact of BSOA on a local scale in the future" |
| Keywords: | "Mortality, Premature *Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis Nitrogen Dioxide *Air Pollution *Air Pollutants/analysis Particulate Matter/analysis Republic of Korea/epidemiology Air pollution Chemical transport model Premature mortality Shared Socioeconomic P;" |
| Notes: | "MedlineOak, Yujin J Park, Rokjin J Lee, Jong-Tae Byun, Garam eng Netherlands 2023/01/02 Sci Total Environ. 2023 Mar 20; 865:161134. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161134. Epub 2022 Dec 29" |
